The Decision Before the Decision: Why Behavior Change So Often Unravels
The Decision Before the Decision:
Why Behavior Change So Often Unravels
by James E. Porter
When people struggle to change a habit — eating better, exercising more, cutting back on sugar, alcohol, or smoking — they often describe any missteps as a sudden failure of willpower. “I just caved.” “I lost control.” But behavioral science tells a very different story.
Most lapses are not spontaneous. They are almost always set in motion by a decision made earlier, sometimes hours or even days before the so-called failure.
I remember reading an example years ago that stuck with me. Someone trying to eat healthier gives in and orders a large plate of French fries. When they look back on that moment, the real turning point wasn’t the fries — it was the earlier decision to stop at Wendy’s in the first place, telling themselves they’d “just have the chili.” Once you’re in the environment, temptation is no longer theoretical. It’s right there, hot and salty.
That idea has been on my mind this January as I’ve been debating whether to do Low Sugar January or No Sugar January. There’s a lunch spot I love — the Harborview Market in Bridgeport, CT — and they make, without exaggeration, the best cookies I’ve ever had in my life. Walking in there while trying to reduce sugar isn’t a neutral act. It’s a loaded decision, even if I tell myself I’ll “just get lunch.”
The behavioral change world has a name for what often happens next: the abstinence violation effect. That’s the tendency to turn a small, intentional or accidental lapse into a full-blown collapse. One cookie becomes, “Well, I’ve already blown it, so I might as well enjoy myself and have two.”
I was acutely aware of this phenomenon last year when I did Dry January. Like many people, I wasn’t sure what to make of it — until I read a line in The New York Times that said, “If you don’t know what to make of Dry January, try Dry February.” I didn’t know what to make of it, so I kept going.
One month turned into many. With one notable exception.
Last October, my wife and I were visiting friends in Sonoma, California, and they asked if we wanted to go wine tasting. I said yes — fully aware that this decision would end my perfect non-drinking streak. But I was also curious. Since I was never an alcoholic, could I break the streak intentionally and then return to my new pattern?
I did. I haven’t had a drink since October 8. (The wine-tasting was loads of fun and I had a memorable afternoon!)
The key point isn’t the wine. It’s that I made the decision consciously, understanding the risks and refusing to let one exception turn into a surrender. That awareness — of the decision before the decision — made all the difference.
The same principle explains why I’ve exercised three to five days a week for over twenty years. When I first joined a local YMCA, I realized something simple but powerful: once I arrived at the gym, the workout happened on autopilot. The real habit wasn’t exercising — it was getting into the car with my gym bag.
That’s why experts often suggest packing your gym bag the night before. It’s not about motivation. It’s about removing friction from the decision that precedes the behavior.
If you’re trying to change anything — your diet, your exercise routine, your smoking habits — stop focusing only on the moment you “fail.” Instead, ask yourself: What decision did I make just before that? Change that decision, and the behavior often changes itself.
Behavior change doesn’t begin with willpower.
It begins earlier — quietly — with the choices that set everything else in motion.
Erica Tuminski
Author